2025 Asia Cup Stats: Which two teams are favorites to reach the final ft. India and Sri Lanka

By: Mohak Hora, Pariamatch Sports Analytics Expert

The 2025 Asia Cup is about to enter its second phase as most of the group stage fixtures have been played out, and the fans now have the Super Four stage of the competition to look forward to in the next few days.

8-time Asia Cup champions India have already made it to the next round after winning their first two group matches comfortably. The Indian fans would now be looking forward to the Super Four stage of the competition, where they will face arch-rivals Pakistan and two qualifying teams from the other group.

On the other hand, Group B features the trio of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan, who are fighting hard to make it to the next round. The Lankan Lions are currently favorites to top Group B, but knowledgeable cricket fans would never rule out Afghanistan as they have a power-packed middle-order along with a well-rounded bowling attack, which could trouble even the best teams on their day.

Let’s make a statistical deep dive into the group stage of the 2025 Asia Cup and previous editions to deduce which two teams could fight it out for the coveted trophy on September 28:

Parimatch Sports: India and Sri Lanka — A Study in Blue Dominance

In Group A, India reigned supreme as they comfortably won their first two matches and sealed a spot in the Super Four stage early on. The Men in Blue will now meet Oman in a dead rubber, which might allow Gautam Gambhir & co. to try out their fringe players and give some much-needed batting practice to Sanju Samson and Hardik Pandya, while Arshdeep Singh could be given a run with the ball in hand if Jasprit Bumrah is rested in the last group fixture.

The reigning World Champions, India, currently occupy all No.1 spots in ICC T20I rankings as the Men in Blue are the No.1 team, Abhishek Sharma is the No.1 batter, Pandya is the No.1 all-rounder, and Varun Chakravarthy holds the pole position in the bowler rankings.

While Sri Lanka is in the seventh spot in the ICC T20I team rankings, the Sanath Jayasuriya-coached team has once again proven their mettle in a multi-lateral tournament. Having the likes of Wanindu Hasaranga and Nuwan Thushara in their bowling arsenal, along with Pathum Nissanka and Kusal Mendis opening the batting, the Lankan Lions have many clutch players who could bail them out of the toughest of situations.

Since the 2024 ICC T20 World Cup, almost 70% of Sri Lanka’s runs have been scored by the top three batters. With the recent introduction of Kamil Mishara at No.3 and Kusal Perera moving a slot below, the Lankan Lions now have depth in their batting order with Wanindu Hasaranga coming in at No.8.

Dark Horses: Pakistan and Bangladesh

Pakistan is undergoing a revamp in the shortest format of the game as former Royal Challengers Bengaluru head coach Mike Hesson is trying to instill a modern approach to playing T20I cricket. Under Salman Agha’s captaincy, the Shaheens are trying to move on from the disappointment of the 2024 ICC T20 World Cup, where they couldn’t even get out of the group stage.

The likes of Saim Ayub, Shaheen Afridi, and Abrar Ahmed look to be in fine form with the white ball in hand, while Fakhar Zaman and Sahibzada Farhan are trying to hold the innings together with the other batters not in the best phase of their respective careers.

Bangladesh could also be considered Dark Horses given that the Tigers don’t have the middle-order strength of Shakib al Hasan, Mushfiqur Rahim, and Mahmudullah anymore, but the young side still powered through the group stage courtesy of narrow wins against Hong Kong, China and Afghanistan.

The Litton Das-led side would be hoping to make a few dents in the Super Four stage as they get ready to face the ‘Big Three’ of Asian cricket. A batting order comprising Tanzid Hasan, Towhid Hridoy, Jaker Ali, and skipper Das couldn’t be referred to as safe as houses but they could surely pull off an upset in the next round of the competition and might end up surprising a few if the Tigers feature in the final of the ongoing tournament.

Previous Record in the Asia Cup

As expected, India has won the Asia Cup trophy 8 times, the most amongst all teams in the continent. With 7 title wins in the ODI format and one in the T20I format, India has dominated the tournament as they won four of the first five editions of the tournament in the 20th century and have also won 3 of the last 4 editions, barring Sri Lanka’s win in the 2022 edition.

The Lankan Lions are in the second spot as they have lifted the coveted trophy 6 times, 5 times in the ODI format, and once in the T20I format in 2022. Despite emerging champions in six different editions, Sri Lanka has only managed to defend their Asian crown once, as the Lions won the title consecutively in 2004 and 2008.

In terms of individual wins in Asia Cup history, India and Sri Lanka are neck to neck as both sides have won 44 out of 66 matches each, enjoying a win percentage of 66.67%. While the Lankan Lions have a marginally better win percentage in the ODI format, India holds the edge in the T20I format of the Asia Cup with 9 wins in 11 matches so far.

Pakistan were at their dominant best in the 1990s when India had a slight revamp in their white-ball side, but the Shaheens failed to win a single edition until 2000, which proves that India and Sri Lanka are the two big dogs in the continent, and the likes of Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan would be playing catch-up for the next few years.